revisit: Rewrote the "why this matters to you" hook.

2026-08-19T18:00:00+02:00

Operator decision, 2026-08-19: whyItMatters.outcome is now the page's primary hook and every analysis was rewritten to a single short, concrete, human-stakes sentence (docs/EDITORIAL.md, Permanent standards #4) — replacing several that had grown into full paragraphs or abstract policy-thesis phrasing. (the politics were never about the numbers → The politics were never about the numbers.)

clarification: Sharpened 2 prediction labels to state an explicit, measurable resolution criterion and date.

2026-07-21T01:57:23+02:00

An estimate that cannot resolve can never enter the public track record. These were tracked without a criterion by which they could be scored Confirmed, Incorrect or Partially Correct; the underlying estimates and their history are unchanged.

Europe's migration politics hardened while the numbers fell — updates

revisit: Rewrote the "why this matters to you" hook.

clarification: Sharpened 2 prediction labels to state an explicit, measurable resolution criterion and date.