Rising tensionREGION HUB
Europe
Broad power with one structural gap. Europe is strong on economy, diplomacy and soft power, short on energy — most live connections here run through that gap, and the newest, a NATO-internal sovereignty dispute in the Aegean, runs through a different one entirely.
→ Russia hubRSS feedSTABILITY58
The institutions demonstrably still work: the Russian gas phase-out was adopted over the objections of the landlocked states it costs most, which is the bloc doing the hard version of its job rather than the easy one. Against that, unemployment at 6.3% is low but no longer falling, and energy costs and migration remain the two files that reliably move votes. Stable, and paying to stay that way.
ECONOMY48
Growth of 0.8% for 2026 after GDP fell 0.2% in Q1, with inflation at 3.0% against a 2% target and energy inflation at 8.4% — and the ECB attributes the downgrade explicitly to the war in the Middle East, not to anything European. Just below trend rather than distressed: the projection returns to 1.5% growth and 2.0% inflation by 2028, and German energy-intensive industry has been flat at 80–85% of pre-crisis output for two years, which is chronic rather than deteriorating.
CONFLICT RISK41
Not a combatant, but absorbing two wars it is not fighting: 5.9 million registered refugees from Ukraine, and an energy shock transmitted from Hormuz that the ECB says cost it growth. Higher than a bloc at peace should score, because the exposure is real and the agency is not — which is the pattern this whole hub keeps finding.
Our own considered read. Scored 0–100 against what is normal for this region — 50 is trend, not a global average. Conflict Risk is inverted: higher means more. No source publishes these three numbers; they are our synthesis of the indicators below, which are real and followable. Editorial judgment, and ours to defend. how we score
No trend arrows yet. The figures these replace were placeholders, so there is nothing honest to measure movement against — the previous number was not a worse reading, it was not a reading at all. Trends appear at the next assessment.
Influence Meter
6 dimensions of powerEurope's power is broad but unevenly distributed — strong on economy, diplomacy and soft power, structurally short on energy. The one weak axis is the one every story on this hub runs through.
Europe (EU)EU
72COMPOSITE INFLUENCE
Soft PowerSTRONGEST AXIS
Each axis is rated 0–100 against the other actors on this site, not against an absolute — the United States is the ceiling. The composite is a weighted average of the six. No source publishes these ratings; the formula is arithmetic, the numbers going into it are our editorial judgment. how we score
Active connections
Showing all 18 connections
Germany's AfD took 43.8% in a state election — three seats short of governing alone
PoliticsMigration
Europe cut the gas off itself — and the shock came from Iran
EconomyGeopoliticsEnergy
Europe calls it sovereignty — its own numbers say it doubles the price
EconomyTechnologyGeopolitics
Hormuz closed — and oil went back to $77 anyway
EnergyGeopoliticsEconomy
Russia ships more to China than ever — and earns less
EconomyGeopoliticsPolitics
Europe's migration politics hardened while the numbers fell
PoliticsMigrationGeopolitics
The sanction didn't leak through India — it was already closing
EconomyEnergyGeopolitics
The front slowed sixteenfold — and the killing rose anyway
GeopoliticsPoliticsSecurity
Sweden called rare earths national security — the mine is a decade off
EconomyEnergyGeopolitics
Trade through the Caucasus sixfolded — Georgia is turning from the EU funding it
EconomyGeopoliticsEnergy
NATO's Arctic ring around Russia is complete — Moscow is answering with troops
SecurityGeopoliticsEnergy
Brussels sanctions the payment plumbing — and lands on Georgia
EconomyGeopoliticsPolitics
Germany signed twenty years of Canadian gas to get off American LNG
EnergyEconomyGeopolitics
A ruling meant to protect migrants triggered the Ceuta crisis it was meant to prevent
MigrationSecurityPolitics
Germany freed defense spending from its debt limit — now it's racing to spend what it unlocked
SecurityEconomyGeopolitics
One of the concrete rates in a tariff regime that has changed its legal basis three times in six months
EconomyGeopoliticsTrade
Germany closed Russia’s consulate and cultural centre over a drone attack Moscow denies
SecurityGeopoliticsPolitics
Power Profiles
The Commission President
Executive · EU
CONSENSUS BUILDER · RULE-MAKER
The German Chancellor
Head of government · Germany
INDUSTRY-FIRST · COALITION-CONSTRAINED
Historical Echo
The same pattern, centuries running. Today's standoff has precedents.
2026
Energy dependence becomes leverage
Decades of pipeline integration reveal themselves as exposure; the EU pays to unwind them.
1973 · OIL SHOCK
Oil embargo and the scramble to diversify
An external supplier turns energy into policy; Europe discovers its dependence in a single winter.
1950s · ECSC
Coal and steel as peace project
The founding wager: bind rivals through resources and war becomes unthinkable. It worked — inside the club.
THIS CONNECTS TO
Nothing here stands alone. This story is one node in a wider web — every card is another thread you can pull.
CONNECTION
Germany's AfD took 43.8% in a state election — three seats short of governing alone
CONNECTION
Europe cut the gas off itself — and the shock came from Iran
CONNECTION
Europe calls it sovereignty — its own numbers say it doubles the price
CONNECTION
Hormuz closed — and oil went back to $77 anyway
CONNECTION
Russia ships more to China than ever — and earns less
CONNECTION
Europe's migration politics hardened while the numbers fell
CONNECTION
The sanction didn't leak through India — it was already closing
CONNECTION
The front slowed sixteenfold — and the killing rose anyway
CONNECTION
Sweden called rare earths national security — the mine is a decade off
CONNECTION
Trade through the Caucasus sixfolded — Georgia is turning from the EU funding it
CONNECTION
NATO's Arctic ring around Russia is complete — Moscow is answering with troops
CONNECTION
Brussels sanctions the payment plumbing — and lands on Georgia
CONNECTION
Germany signed twenty years of Canadian gas to get off American LNG
CONNECTION
A ruling meant to protect migrants triggered the Ceuta crisis it was meant to prevent
CONNECTION
Germany freed defense spending from its debt limit — now it's racing to spend what it unlocked
CONNECTION
One of the concrete rates in a tariff regime that has changed its legal basis three times in six months
CONNECTION
Germany closed Russia’s consulate and cultural centre over a drone attack Moscow denies
CONNECTION
Erdogan warned Greece over 'militarizing' its islands two days after Athens signed a $3.5bn Israeli air-defense deal
REGION
Russia — where the leverage actually sat
REGION
United States — the other pressure on Brussels
REGION
India — discounted crude and the limits of sanctions
REGION
China — the buyer setting the terms
REGION
Caucasus — the corridor the rerouting runs through
REGION
Europe as the sanctioning side: where else its instruments land
REGION
The Caucasus as the corridor — rerouted trade, two patrons, and now a sanctions perimeter
REGION
Russia on the other end of the rail: the institutions this package froze
REGION
Indo-Pacific — the refiners that stopped waiting on Hormuz
REGION
Middle East — the chokepoint that sent Asia looking for Canadian barrels
REGION
Africa — where the crossing to Ceuta begins