Active conflictREGION HUB
Middle East
The region that sets the price of everything else, now fighting the war the rest of this map runs downstream of. When the Strait of Hormuz closed, German factory bills moved — and the world learned how much of its energy exposure runs through one 33km channel.
→ Europe hub→ China hubRSS feedSTABILITY26
At the low end of what this hub can score. An interstate war since 28 February 2026, a ceasefire signed on 17 June that collapsed on 8 July, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and thousands of Revolutionary Guard personnel killed, and Gulf states not party to the quarrel absorbing strikes on their own territory. This is not fragility risk — it is rupture in progress. Scored well below trend because the region's political order is being contested by force, not managed.
ECONOMY40
War-damaged and downgraded. The World Bank's April 2026 update cuts regional growth (excluding Iran) from 4.0% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026 — a 2.4-point revision — with Iran contracting separately, driven by a near-total Strait of Hormuz shutdown (about five ships a day in early March against 96 a year earlier, a 95% decline) and energy-price-led inflation. Held off the floor by the Gulf's fiscal buffers and the oil revenue a supply shock partly repays; pulled down by the transit collapse and infrastructure damage. Below trend, not in freefall.
CONFLICT RISK84
Near the ceiling. A great-power war is being fought in the region now: US Central Command struck 90 targets across Iran's coast in a single night, Iran reports 3,503 killed and 26,500 injured with military dead put above 6,000 by US and Israeli sources, and the June ceasefire has already failed once. Below the absolute top only because the fighting is still bounded — Gulf bases and the Iranian coast rather than a full regional conflagration — and that boundary is thin. Inverted scale: higher means more risk.
Our own considered read. Scored 0–100 against what is normal for this region — 50 is trend, not a global average. Conflict Risk is inverted: higher means more. No source publishes these three numbers; they are our synthesis of the indicators below, which are real and followable. Editorial judgment, and ours to defend. how we score
No trend arrows yet. The figures these replace were placeholders, so there is nothing honest to measure movement against — the previous number was not a worse reading, it was not a reading at all. Trends appear at the next assessment.
Who competes here
arena · not an actorNo single power speaks for this region, so there is no regional Influence Score to give. What there is: four outside and inside powers with incompatible aims, and one waterway that gives the argument global consequences.
United States89GLOBAL
Naval presence built around keeping the Strait open, and the security guarantees that presence buys elsewhere in the region.
STRONGEST · TECHNOLOGY
Iran43GLOBAL
Geography. Control of the northern shore of Hormuz converts a modest economy into leverage over roughly a fifth of seaborne oil.
STRONGEST · ENERGY
China76GLOBAL
The largest customer for Gulf crude — and the power with the most to lose from a closure it has no navy positioned to reopen.
STRONGEST · ECONOMIC
Europe (EU)72GLOBAL
A price-taker with no forces in play: exposed to the outcome, largely absent from deciding it.
STRONGEST · SOFT POWER
The figures are each actor's global Influence Score, not their weight inside Middle East — we do not have that number and will not estimate one. What is specific to this region is why each power is here. how we score
Active connections
Showing all 15 connections
Hormuz closed — and oil went back to $77 anyway
EnergyGeopoliticsEconomy
The nuclear program is gone — the US–Iran war isn't
GeopoliticsSecurityEnergy
The contest moves down-corridor — Cairo courts the Horn
GeopoliticsSecurityEconomy
A US nuclear deal reopens the Gulf's enrichment question
GeopoliticsSecurityEnergy
Hormuz risk sent Japan's refiners to a Canadian pipeline
EnergyEconomyGeopolitics
The ceasefire kept its one headline promise and stalled on the rest
GeopoliticsSecurityPolitics
Iran rearmed the Houthis — they blockaded Saudi Arabia, not Iran's war
GeopoliticsSecurityEconomy
The Iran war gets blamed for China's growth miss — its own exports say otherwise
EconomyGeopoliticsPolitics
The proxy patronage and the Hormuz shock both trace back here
HumanitarianSecurityGeopolitics
Turkey joined a Saudi-Pakistan defense pact — 1.4 million troops, one untested clause
GeopoliticsSecurity
Disarm by 30 September or face terrorism charges — a July raid shows who has the guns
SecurityGeopoliticsEconomy
Iran fired missiles at the UAE — the UAE answered with an indefinite trade ban
GeopoliticsSecurityEnergy
Syria ends its second army — and the detention system that came with it
SecurityGeopoliticsHumanitarian
Israel freed five Lebanese prisoners this week — the disarmament term stuck since June hasn’t moved
GeopoliticsSecurityPolitics
A four-year truce just broke — the Houthis are fighting for the port that decides who uses the Red Sea
HumanitarianSecurityGeopolitics
What we intend to cover
Editorial intent, not findings. Nothing below has been analysed yet.
- Whether Hormuz leverage is single-use — the closure moved less price than anyone modelled.
- Gulf LNG as the swing supply in Europe's post-Russian gas mix.
- Where Saudi Arabia, Israel and Turkey sit on the six dimensions, scored individually rather than as a bloc.
THIS CONNECTS TO
Nothing here stands alone. This story is one node in a wider web — every card is another thread you can pull.
CONNECTION
Hormuz closed — and oil went back to $77 anyway
CONNECTION
The nuclear program is gone — the US–Iran war isn't
CONNECTION
The contest moves down-corridor — Cairo courts the Horn
CONNECTION
A US nuclear deal reopens the Gulf's enrichment question
CONNECTION
Hormuz risk sent Japan's refiners to a Canadian pipeline
CONNECTION
The ceasefire kept its one headline promise and stalled on the rest
CONNECTION
Iran rearmed the Houthis — they blockaded Saudi Arabia, not Iran's war
CONNECTION
The Iran war gets blamed for China's growth miss — its own exports say otherwise
CONNECTION
The proxy patronage and the Hormuz shock both trace back here
CONNECTION
Turkey joined a Saudi-Pakistan defense pact — 1.4 million troops, one untested clause
CONNECTION
Disarm by 30 September or face terrorism charges — a July raid shows who has the guns
CONNECTION
Iran fired missiles at the UAE — the UAE answered with an indefinite trade ban
CONNECTION
Syria ends its second army — and the detention system that came with it
CONNECTION
Israel freed five Lebanese prisoners this week — the disarmament term stuck since June hasn’t moved
CONNECTION
A four-year truce just broke — the Houthis are fighting for the port that decides who uses the Red Sea
REGION
India — discounted crude and the limits of sanctions
REGION
United States — record exports, sanctions origin
REGION
China — the Gulf's largest oil customer, with no navy in play
REGION
Europe — the buyer unwinding a 96% dependence on American LNG
REGION
Indo-Pacific — the refiners that stopped waiting on Hormuz
REGION
Russia — the 2022 cutoff whose consequence Germany is still unwinding
REGION
Africa — where the second-order costs of distant wars land first