NEWSNYOUSEE HOW IT RIPPLES
The United States Capitol building in Washington, D.C.
The US Capitol — where much of this hub's leverage is written into law.Noclip / Wikimedia Commons · Public domain
Rising tensionREGION HUB

United States

The United States is the acting side of ten connections on the map — the sanctions chain, the US–Iran war it is fighting, the Taiwan arms package it is holding back as leverage against China, the raid that captured Venezuela's president, the tariff regime it has rebuilt twice since the Supreme Court struck it down, a new sanctions bill threatening 100% tariffs on Russia's biggest oil buyers, the decision to end legal protection for Haitians as gang rule spreads at home, its third Trump-Xi summit in eleven months, an unauthorized CIA raid in Mexico that killed two of its own officers, and the Western-backed rail corridor now racing China's own revived railway for Congo's copper and cobalt. Its larger presence is indirect: it is the supplier that replaced Russian gas in Europe, one of the exporters that absorbed the Hormuz closure, and the market whose rare-earth dependency China is quietly working — in none of those cases as an endpoint on the arc. It moves more of this map than it is drawn on.

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STABILITY64
Institutions and the labour market are functioning: unemployment at 4.2% in June 2026 is the lowest in a year, and Vanguard's 9 July outlook calls the labour market 'fundamentally healthy' with the Fed on hold and no recession forecast. Against that, hiring cooled sharply — 57,000 payrolls added, with 74,000 struck off the prior two months in revision — and the country is prosecuting a foreign war in a charged political climate. Scored above trend for the capacity to absorb a shock, not for approval of the government.
ECONOMY60
Positive but decelerating. Inflation is 'uncomfortably above target' with the Fed on hold through 2026 (Vanguard), payroll growth has slowed to 57,000 a month against triple-digit norms, and the June gains carried 74,000 in downward revisions. Not distress — joblessness is low at 4.2% and no recession is projected — but the engine is shifting from hiring to investment, which is a slower one. Just above trend rather than strong.
CONFLICT RISK55
No conflict on US soil, but the country is an active combatant abroad: 17 US soldiers and one contractor killed, 548 wounded, and an estimated $113.3 billion spent by June 2026 in a US–Iran war whose ceasefire has since collapsed. Elevated because the war is open-ended and the exit is unclear; held below the ceiling because the fighting is expeditionary, not homeland. Inverted scale — higher means more risk.

Our own considered read. Scored 0–100 against what is normal for this region — 50 is trend, not a global average. Conflict Risk is inverted: higher means more. No source publishes these three numbers; they are our synthesis of the indicators below, which are real and followable. Editorial judgment, and ours to defend. how we score

No trend arrows yet. The figures these replace were placeholders, so there is nothing honest to measure movement against — the previous number was not a worse reading, it was not a reading at all. Trends appear at the next assessment.

WHAT INFORMED THIS READ
  1. June 2026 jobs report: Employers add 57,000 jobs Robert Half · July 2026
  2. Our economic outlook for the United States Vanguard · 9 July 2026
  3. 2026 Iran war (US war cost and casualty figures) Wikipedia · accessed 18 July 2026

Influence Meter

6 dimensions of power

The ceiling this map's Influence Meter is calibrated against: the deepest capital markets, the largest defence budget, and the reserve currency every sanctions regime here is denominated in. Its one soft spot is the same one this hub's health read shows — an open-ended war with no clean exit.

United StatesUSA
89COMPOSITE INFLUENCE
TechnologySTRONGEST AXIS
MILITARYECONOMICDIPLOMATICTECHNOLOGYENERGYSOFT POWER
  • Military95
  • Economic90
  • Diplomatic82
  • Technology96
  • Energy78
  • Soft Power88

Each axis is rated 0–100 against the other actors on this site, not against an absolute — the United States is the ceiling. The composite is a weighted average of the six. No source publishes these ratings; the formula is arithmetic, the numbers going into it are our editorial judgment. how we score

Active connections

Showing all 18 connections

What we intend to cover

Editorial intent, not findings. Nothing below has been analysed yet.

  • LNG export capacity as the counterweight to pipeline leverage.
  • Electoral cycles as a scheduling constraint on foreign policy.
THIS CONNECTS TO

Nothing here stands alone. This story is one node in a wider web — every card is another thread you can pull.

CONNECTION
Russia ships more to China than ever — and earns less
CONNECTION
The nuclear program is gone — the US–Iran war isn't
CONNECTION
Washington bombed Iran's enrichment — then opened Saudi Arabia's door
CONNECTION
The US tariff that grades allies on its own rulebook
CONNECTION
Its biggest crude supplier found other customers — and its biggest LNG buyer did too
CONNECTION
Trump is holding Taiwan's own arms package as a bargaining chip with Xi
CONNECTION
A fourth acting arc: the raid that captured a president and put him on trial in Manhattan
CONNECTION
A tariff regime the Supreme Court struck down and the administration rebuilt twice
CONNECTION
The Senate just gave Trump tariff power over Russia's biggest oil buyers — China and India
CONNECTION
Gangs run 90% of Haiti's capital — the US just lost the legal reason to keep 350,000 Haitians out of it
CONNECTION
A tariff power the Supreme Court did not strike down — because nobody had ever used it
CONNECTION
The East Coast's shortcut to Asia is down to 32 ships a day
CONNECTION
The Supreme Court said Trump skipped a step firing the Fed's Lisa Cook. It never said he can't.
CONNECTION
The Army Secretary quit rather than keep fighting his own Defense Secretary's purge
CONNECTION
A third leader-level meeting in eleven months, six weeks before the tariff truce itself expires
CONNECTION
The rare-earth leverage sitting underneath the trade truce — and the two US firms China blacklisted anyway
CONNECTION
Two of its own CIA officers died in a raid Mexico says it never approved
CONNECTION
A Western-backed railway is racing China's revived TAZARA line for the same Congolese copper and cobalt
REGION
Russia — the seller with nowhere else to go
REGION
China — the buyer setting the terms
REGION
Caucasus — the corridor the rerouting runs through
REGION
Middle East — the contest this war is being fought inside
REGION
United States — the tariff-setter, and why the courts changed its weapon
REGION
Great Britain — the treaty ally in the higher tariff band
REGION
Europe — the buyer unwinding a 96% dependence on American LNG
REGION
Indo-Pacific — the refiners that stopped waiting on Hormuz
REGION
Latin America — the region absorbing this precedent
REGION
Africa — the region both corridors run through